40만 원 기준 시뮬·dry-run 정합 및 hybrid 체결 엔진 통합.

초기 자금 GT_INITIAL_CASH_KRW=400000과 원화 한도 비율(알림·LIVE_ORDER·일한도·손실한도)을 맞추고, dry-run/live 체결을 sim_causal_hybrid(replay)와 동일 경로로 통합한다. 시뮬 리포트 갱신, Phase C 슈퍼바이저·매수매도 리허설 스크립트를 추가한다.

Co-authored-by: Cursor <cursoragent@cursor.com>
This commit is contained in:
dsyoon
2026-06-03 11:31:24 +09:00
parent b9ee241d14
commit c6888c9228
24 changed files with 7707 additions and 6253 deletions

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@@ -47,16 +47,21 @@ def _holding_qty(balances: dict[str, dict[str, float]], symbol: str) -> float:
def build_rule_alert_message(
hit: dict[str, Any],
balances: dict[str, dict[str, float]] | None = None,
*,
trade_krw: float | None = None,
trade_qty: float | None = None,
) -> str:
"""
규칙 발화 알림 본문을 만듭니다.
매수: MONITOR_ALERT_KRW_AMOUNT 기준 수량·금액.
매도: 보유 수량(잔고 조회 가능 시) × 가격 = 금액, 없으면 참고 금액 기준.
trade_krw·trade_qty가 있으면 실제(모의) 체결 규모를 표시합니다.
없으면 매수는 MONITOR_ALERT_KRW_AMOUNT, 매도는 보유×가격(또는 참고 금액).
Args:
hit: evaluate_live_rules 항목 (side, rule_id, dt, close).
balances: 빗썸 잔고 dict. None이면 매도도 참고 금액 기준.
balances: 잔고 dict (모의·실거래).
trade_krw: 체결 원화(모의·실거래 planned/executed).
trade_qty: 체결 수량(매도 시).
Returns:
텔레그램 메시지 문자열.
@@ -67,14 +72,25 @@ def build_rule_alert_message(
dt = hit.get("dt", "")
qty_basis = ""
if side == "SELL" and balances is not None:
if trade_krw is not None and trade_krw > 0:
amount = float(trade_krw)
if trade_qty is not None and trade_qty > 0:
qty = float(trade_qty)
qty_basis = "체결 기준"
elif close > 0:
qty = amount / close
qty_basis = "체결 기준(원화→수량)"
else:
qty = 0.0
qty_basis = "체결 기준"
elif side == "SELL" and balances is not None:
qty = _holding_qty(balances, SYMBOL)
amount = qty * close
qty_basis = "보유 기준"
qty_basis = "보유 기준(체결 전)"
elif side == "BUY":
amount = float(MONITOR_ALERT_KRW_AMOUNT)
qty = amount / close if close > 0 else 0.0
qty_basis = "참고 매수 규모"
qty_basis = "참고 매수 규모(알림용)"
else:
amount = float(MONITOR_ALERT_KRW_AMOUNT)
qty = amount / close if close > 0 else 0.0

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@@ -0,0 +1,255 @@
"""
시뮬 sim_causal_hybrid 와 동일 체결 엔진 (build_monitor_hybrid_sized_trades).
dry-run·live(06) 모두 발화 이력 → hybrid 배분 → amount_krw·수량 적용.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass
from typing import Any
import pandas as pd
from config import GT_INITIAL_CASH_KRW, TRADING_FEE_RATE
from deepcoin.ground_truth.causal_gt_hybrid import build_monitor_hybrid_sized_trades
from deepcoin.ground_truth.hybrid_dd_calibrate import load_hybrid_dd_params
from deepcoin.ops.paper_portfolio import PaperPortfolio
@dataclass
class SimTradeResult:
"""단일 발화에 대한 시뮬 배분·체결 결과."""
hit: dict[str, Any]
amount_krw: float
sell_qty: float
ok: bool
message: str
leg_id: int | None = None
def hit_key(hit: dict[str, Any]) -> tuple[str, str, str]:
"""발화 고유 키 (dt, rule_id, side)."""
return (str(hit["dt"]), str(hit["rule_id"]), str(hit["side"]))
def sort_hits_sim_order(hits: list[dict[str, Any]]) -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
"""
시뮬·allocate 순서: 시각순, 동일 시각이면 buy → sell.
Args:
hits: evaluate_live_rules 발화.
Returns:
정렬된 리스트.
"""
side_rank = {"buy": 0, "sell": 1}
def _key(h: dict[str, Any]) -> tuple:
return (str(h["dt"]), side_rank.get(str(h["side"]), 9), str(h["rule_id"]))
return sorted(hits, key=_key)
def _signals_for_hybrid(
signal_history: list[dict[str, Any]],
*,
approved_buy_rules: set[str] | None,
) -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
"""
hybrid 배분용 신호 목록 (EV/WF 미통과 매수 제외).
Args:
signal_history: {dt, rule_id, side, close}.
approved_buy_rules: 허용 매수 rule_id.
Returns:
시뮬 입력 trade dict 리스트.
"""
out: list[dict[str, Any]] = []
for h in sort_hits_sim_order(signal_history):
side = str(h["side"])
rid = str(h["rule_id"])
if side == "buy" and approved_buy_rules is not None and rid not in approved_buy_rules:
continue
out.append(
{
"dt": str(h["dt"]),
"side": side,
"close": float(h["close"]),
"rule_id": rid,
}
)
return out
def size_monitor_signals(
signal_history: list[dict[str, Any]],
ohlc_df: pd.DataFrame,
*,
approved_buy_rules: set[str] | None = None,
) -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
"""
시뮬과 동일 hybrid tier 배분 (amount_krw·weight·leg_id).
Args:
signal_history: 누적 발화.
ohlc_df: 3m OHLC.
approved_buy_rules: 매수 허용 규칙.
Returns:
sized trade dict 리스트 (시각순).
"""
rows = _signals_for_hybrid(signal_history, approved_buy_rules=approved_buy_rules)
if not rows:
return []
fires = pd.DataFrame(rows)
dd = load_hybrid_dd_params()
sized, _stats = build_monitor_hybrid_sized_trades(
fires,
ohlc_df,
enhanced=False,
initial_cash=float(GT_INITIAL_CASH_KRW),
fee_rate=TRADING_FEE_RATE,
dd_large_pct=dd.get("dd_large_pct"),
dd_medium_pct=dd.get("dd_medium_pct"),
)
return sized
def _find_sized_trade(sized: list[dict[str, Any]], hit: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, Any] | None:
"""sized 목록에서 발화 1건 조회."""
dt, rid, side = hit_key(hit)
for t in sized:
action = str(t.get("action", t.get("side", "")))
if str(t.get("dt")) == dt and str(t.get("rule_id", "")) == rid and action == side:
return t
return None
def replay_paper_portfolio(
signal_history: list[dict[str, Any]],
ohlc_df: pd.DataFrame,
*,
approved_buy_rules: set[str] | None = None,
) -> tuple[PaperPortfolio, dict[tuple[str, str, str], SimTradeResult]]:
"""
신호 이력 전체를 시뮬 엔진으로 재생 → 모의 계좌(GT_INITIAL_CASH_KRW) 상태.
Args:
signal_history: Phase C 누적 발화.
ohlc_df: 3m OHLC.
approved_buy_rules: EV/WF 통과 매수 규칙.
Returns:
(portfolio, hit_key → SimTradeResult).
"""
sized = size_monitor_signals(
signal_history, ohlc_df, approved_buy_rules=approved_buy_rules
)
paper = PaperPortfolio()
paper.cash_krw = float(GT_INITIAL_CASH_KRW)
paper.qty = 0.0
paper.qty_by_leg = {}
results: dict[tuple[str, str, str], SimTradeResult] = {}
leg_sell_idxs: dict[int, list[int]] = {}
for i, t in enumerate(sized):
lid = int(t.get("leg_id", 0))
if str(t.get("action", t.get("side"))) == "sell":
leg_sell_idxs.setdefault(lid, []).append(i)
sell_leg: int | None = None
sell_base_qty = 0.0
for i, t in enumerate(sized):
side = str(t.get("action", t.get("side", "")))
price = float(t["price"])
dt = str(t["dt"])
rid = str(t.get("rule_id", ""))
leg_id = int(t.get("leg_id", 0))
hit = {"dt": dt, "rule_id": rid, "side": side, "close": price}
key = hit_key(hit)
amount = float(t.get("amount_krw") or 0)
if side == "buy":
if amount <= 0:
results[key] = SimTradeResult(
hit, 0.0, 0.0, False, "시뮬 매수 스킵(현금·tier)"
)
continue
ok = paper.apply_buy(amount, price, leg_id)
msg = f"paper_buy sim leg={leg_id}{amount:,.0f}" if ok else "paper_buy 실패"
results[key] = SimTradeResult(
hit, amount, 0.0, ok, msg, leg_id=leg_id
)
sell_leg = None
continue
leg_qty = paper.qty_by_leg.get(leg_id, 0.0)
if leg_qty <= 1e-12:
results[key] = SimTradeResult(hit, 0.0, 0.0, False, "모의 보유 없음")
continue
if amount <= 0:
results[key] = SimTradeResult(hit, 0.0, 0.0, False, "시뮬 매도 스킵")
continue
if sell_leg != leg_id:
sell_leg = leg_id
sell_base_qty = leg_qty
rem = [j for j in leg_sell_idxs.get(leg_id, []) if j >= i]
is_last = bool(rem) and i == rem[-1]
sell_qty = leg_qty if is_last else amount / price if price > 0 else 0.0
ok = paper.apply_sell(amount, sell_qty, price, leg_id)
msg = f"paper_sell sim qty={sell_qty:.4f}{amount:,.0f}" if ok else "paper_sell 실패"
results[key] = SimTradeResult(
hit, amount, sell_qty, ok, msg, leg_id=leg_id
)
return paper, results
def plan_live_hit(
signal_history: list[dict[str, Any]],
hit: dict[str, Any],
ohlc_df: pd.DataFrame,
*,
approved_buy_rules: set[str] | None = None,
) -> SimTradeResult:
"""
live: 누적 이력 + 신규 발화 1건 — replay 와 동일 sell_qty·amount.
Args:
signal_history: 기존 이력(신규 hit 미포함).
hit: 이번 발화.
ohlc_df: 3m OHLC.
approved_buy_rules: 매수 허용.
Returns:
SimTradeResult (dry-run replay_paper_portfolio 와 동일).
"""
if ohlc_df is None or getattr(ohlc_df, "empty", True):
return SimTradeResult(hit, 0.0, 0.0, False, "OHLC 없음")
dt, rid, side = hit_key(hit)
hist = list(signal_history)
if not any(
str(s["dt"]) == dt and str(s["rule_id"]) == rid and str(s["side"]) == side
for s in hist
):
hist.append(
{
"dt": dt,
"rule_id": rid,
"side": side,
"close": float(hit["close"]),
}
)
_, results = replay_paper_portfolio(
hist, ohlc_df, approved_buy_rules=approved_buy_rules
)
res = results.get((dt, rid, side))
if res is not None:
return res
return SimTradeResult(hit, 0.0, 0.0, False, "시뮬 배분 없음")

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@@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
"""
3단계: monitor_rules 발화 시 빗썸 실주문 (가드·로그).
dry-run·live 체결 배분: 시뮬 sim_causal_hybrid 와 동일 (hybrid_sim_execution).
"""
from __future__ import annotations
@@ -13,6 +15,7 @@ from typing import Any
from config import (
CHART_LOOKBACK_DAYS,
COIN_NAME,
GT_INITIAL_CASH_KRW,
LIVE_COOLDOWN_MIN,
LIVE_DAILY_KRW_MAX,
LIVE_DAILY_LOSS_LIMIT_KRW,
@@ -29,20 +32,29 @@ from deepcoin.matching.live_eval import evaluate_live_rules
from deepcoin.matching.live_sizing import LivePositionState, live_sizing_enabled
from deepcoin.matching.load_rules import load_monitor_rules
from deepcoin.matching.position_sizing import (
compute_buy_amount_krw,
live_buy_asset_pct_scale,
load_ev_wf_approved_rule_ids,
top_leg_ids_by_forward_return,
)
from deepcoin.paths import resolve_ground_truth_file
from deepcoin.ops.alert_message import build_rule_alert_message
from deepcoin.ops.hybrid_sim_execution import (
hit_key,
plan_live_hit,
replay_paper_portfolio,
sort_hits_sim_order,
)
from deepcoin.ops.monitor import Monitor
from deepcoin.paths import LIVE_TRADES_LOG, PAPER_FIRES_LOG
from deepcoin.ops.paper_portfolio import PaperPortfolio
from deepcoin.paths import (
LIVE_SIGNAL_HISTORY_JSON,
LIVE_TRADES_LOG,
PAPER_FIRES_LOG,
resolve_ground_truth_file,
)
class LiveTrader(Monitor):
"""
규칙 발화 시 실거래 실행. LIVE_TRADING_ENABLED=0 이면 주문 없음(드라이런 로그만).
규칙 발화 시 실거래 실행. LIVE_TRADING_ENABLED=0 이면 모의(sim hybrid)만.
"""
def __init__(self) -> None:
@@ -57,8 +69,73 @@ class LiveTrader(Monitor):
self._large_legs: set[int] = set()
self._approved_rules: set[str] = set()
self._position_state = LivePositionState.load()
self._paper = PaperPortfolio.load() if not LIVE_TRADING_ENABLED else None
self._live_signal_history: list[dict[str, Any]] = []
self._ohlc_df = None
self._load_sizing_context()
if self._paper_mode and self._paper.signal_history:
self._resync_paper_from_sim()
if LIVE_TRADING_ENABLED:
self._live_signal_history = self._load_live_signal_history()
@property
def _paper_mode(self) -> bool:
"""dry-run: 모의 계좌·시뮬 hybrid 체결."""
return not LIVE_TRADING_ENABLED and self._paper is not None
def _load_live_signal_history(self) -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
"""live 시뮬 정합용 발화 이력."""
if not LIVE_SIGNAL_HISTORY_JSON.is_file():
return []
try:
data = json.loads(LIVE_SIGNAL_HISTORY_JSON.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
return list(data.get("signals") or [])
except (json.JSONDecodeError, OSError):
return []
def _save_live_signal_history(self) -> None:
"""live 발화 이력 저장."""
LIVE_SIGNAL_HISTORY_JSON.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
LIVE_SIGNAL_HISTORY_JSON.write_text(
json.dumps(
{"signals": self._live_signal_history[-2000:]},
ensure_ascii=False,
indent=2,
),
encoding="utf-8",
)
def _live_signal_seen(self, hit: dict[str, Any]) -> bool:
"""live 이력에 동일 봉 발화가 있는지."""
dt, rid, side = hit_key(hit)
return any(
str(s["dt"]) == dt and str(s["rule_id"]) == rid and str(s["side"]) == side
for s in self._live_signal_history
)
def _append_live_signal(self, hit: dict[str, Any]) -> None:
"""live 발화 이력 추가."""
if self._live_signal_seen(hit):
return
self._live_signal_history.append(
{
"dt": str(hit["dt"]),
"rule_id": str(hit["rule_id"]),
"side": str(hit["side"]),
"close": float(hit["close"]),
}
)
def _balances_for_trading(self) -> dict[str, dict[str, float]] | None:
"""
dry-run: paper_portfolio만. live: 빗썸 API.
"""
if self._paper_mode:
return self._paper.balances_dict()
try:
return self.load_balances_dict()
except Exception:
return None
def _load_sizing_context(self) -> None:
"""GT leg·EV/WF 통과 규칙 캐시."""
@@ -77,12 +154,7 @@ class LiveTrader(Monitor):
self._day_pnl_krw = 0.0
def _append_log(self, record: dict[str, Any]) -> None:
"""
live_trades.jsonl에 한 줄 append.
Args:
record: 로그 dict.
"""
"""live_trades.jsonl append."""
LIVE_TRADES_LOG.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
with LIVE_TRADES_LOG.open("a", encoding="utf-8") as f:
f.write(json.dumps(record, ensure_ascii=False) + "\n")
@@ -95,11 +167,7 @@ class LiveTrader(Monitor):
skip_reason: str = "",
order_log: dict[str, Any] | None = None,
) -> None:
"""
Phase C dry-run: 모든 발화·스킵 사유·모의 금액을 paper_fires.jsonl에 기록.
금요일 `07_phase_c_paper_report.py`로 forward 수익률(참고) 집계.
"""
"""Phase C paper_fires.jsonl."""
PAPER_FIRES_LOG.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
row = {
"ts": datetime.now().isoformat(timespec="seconds"),
@@ -112,21 +180,21 @@ class LiveTrader(Monitor):
"skip_reason": skip_reason or "",
"live_enabled": bool(LIVE_TRADING_ENABLED),
"order_message": (order_log or {}).get("message", ""),
"sizing": "sim_causal_hybrid",
}
with PAPER_FIRES_LOG.open("a", encoding="utf-8") as f:
f.write(json.dumps(row, ensure_ascii=False) + "\n")
def _can_trade(self, rule_id: str, planned_krw: float | None = None) -> tuple[bool, str]:
"""
일·쿨다운·손실 한도 검사.
Args:
rule_id: 규칙 ID.
Returns:
(허용 여부, 사유).
쿨다운(1봉=3분) + live 일한도. dry-run은 일한도만 생략.
"""
self._reset_day_if_needed()
last = self._rule_last_unix.get(rule_id, 0.0)
if time.time() - last < LIVE_COOLDOWN_MIN * 60:
return False, f"규칙 쿨다운({LIVE_COOLDOWN_MIN}분)"
if self._paper_mode:
return True, ""
if self._day_trades >= LIVE_MAX_TRADES_PER_DAY:
return False, "일 최대 거래 수 초과"
need = float(planned_krw if planned_krw is not None else LIVE_ORDER_KRW)
@@ -134,147 +202,103 @@ class LiveTrader(Monitor):
return False, "일 주문 한도 초과"
if self._day_pnl_krw <= -abs(LIVE_DAILY_LOSS_LIMIT_KRW):
return False, "일 손실 한도 초과"
last = self._rule_last_unix.get(rule_id, 0.0)
if time.time() - last < LIVE_COOLDOWN_MIN * 60:
return False, f"규칙 쿨다운({LIVE_COOLDOWN_MIN}분)"
return True, ""
def _load_ohlc_df(self) -> None:
"""drawdown tier용 3m OHLC 캐시."""
"""drawdown tier용 3m OHLC."""
try:
frames = load_frames_from_db(self, SYMBOL, lookback_days=CHART_LOOKBACK_DAYS)
self._ohlc_df = frames.get(MATCH_PRIMARY_INTERVAL)
except Exception:
self._ohlc_df = None
def _resolve_buy_amount_krw(self, hit: dict[str, Any]) -> float:
"""
총자산·현금·EV/WF·leg 티어로 매수 원화 산출.
GT_SIGNAL_CAUSAL=1 이면 시뮬 sim_primary(hybrid, enhanced=False)와 동일 tier·weight.
Args:
hit: evaluate_live_rules 항목.
Returns:
매수 원화.
"""
rid = hit["rule_id"]
if rid not in self._approved_rules:
return 0.0
price = float(hit["close"])
cash = 0.0
qty = 0.0
try:
bal = self.load_balances_dict()
sym = bal.get(SYMBOL, {})
cash = float(sym.get("available_krw") or sym.get("krw") or 0)
qty = float(sym.get("balance") or 0)
except Exception:
return 0.0
if live_sizing_enabled():
if self._ohlc_df is None:
self._load_ohlc_df()
return self._position_state.plan_buy_amount_krw(
hit["dt"],
price,
cash,
qty,
self._ohlc_df,
enhanced=False,
fee_rate=TRADING_FEE_RATE,
)
scale = live_buy_asset_pct_scale(
rid,
hit["dt"],
self._gt_trades,
approved_rules=self._approved_rules,
large_legs=self._large_legs,
def _resync_paper_from_sim(self) -> None:
"""기존 paper 잔고를 sim_causal_hybrid replay 로 맞춤."""
if self._ohlc_df is None:
self._load_ohlc_df()
if self._ohlc_df is None or getattr(self._ohlc_df, "empty", True):
return
replayed, _ = replay_paper_portfolio(
self._paper.signal_history,
self._ohlc_df,
approved_buy_rules=self._approved_rules,
)
return compute_buy_amount_krw(
cash,
qty,
price,
1.0,
1.0,
asset_pct_scale=scale,
fee_rate=TRADING_FEE_RATE,
self._paper.cash_krw = replayed.cash_krw
self._paper.qty = replayed.qty
self._paper.qty_by_leg = dict(replayed.qty_by_leg)
self._paper.current_leg_id = replayed.current_leg_id
self._paper.save()
def _sim_plan(self, hit: dict[str, Any]) -> Any:
"""시뮬 hybrid 배분 1건."""
if self._ohlc_df is None:
self._load_ohlc_df()
if self._paper_mode:
hist = list(self._paper.signal_history)
else:
hist = list(self._live_signal_history)
return plan_live_hit(
hist,
hit,
self._ohlc_df,
approved_buy_rules=self._approved_rules,
)
def _execute_order(self, hit: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, Any]:
"""
매수·매도 주문 실행 또는 드라이런.
Args:
hit: evaluate_live_rules 항목.
Returns:
로그용 결과 dict.
"""
def _execute_live_order(self, hit: dict[str, Any], plan: Any) -> dict[str, Any]:
"""실거래: 시뮬 planned 금액·수량으로 API 주문."""
side = hit["side"]
price = float(hit["close"])
if side == "buy":
amount_krw = self._resolve_buy_amount_krw(hit)
if amount_krw <= 0:
return {
"ts": datetime.now().isoformat(timespec="seconds"),
"rule_id": hit["rule_id"],
"side": side,
"signal_dt": hit["dt"],
"price": price,
"amount_krw": 0,
"live_enabled": LIVE_TRADING_ENABLED,
"ok": False,
"message": "매수 스킵(EV/WF·leg·현금)",
}
else:
amount_krw = float(LIVE_ORDER_KRW)
record: dict[str, Any] = {
"ts": datetime.now().isoformat(timespec="seconds"),
"rule_id": hit["rule_id"],
"side": side,
"signal_dt": hit["dt"],
"price": price,
"amount_krw": amount_krw,
"live_enabled": LIVE_TRADING_ENABLED,
"amount_krw": plan.amount_krw,
"live_enabled": True,
"ok": False,
"message": "",
"message": plan.message,
"sizing": "sim_causal_hybrid",
}
if not LIVE_TRADING_ENABLED:
record["message"] = "dry_run (LIVE_TRADING_ENABLED=0)"
record["ok"] = True
if not plan.ok:
return record
try:
if side == "buy":
ok = self.buyCoinMarket(SYMBOL, int(amount_krw), count=None)
ok = self.buyCoinMarket(SYMBOL, int(plan.amount_krw), count=None)
record["ok"] = bool(ok)
record["message"] = "buyCoinMarket" if ok else "buy failed"
elif side == "sell":
bal = self.load_balances_dict().get(SYMBOL, {})
qty = float(bal.get("balance") or 0)
if qty <= 0:
held = float(bal.get("balance") or 0)
if held <= 0:
record["message"] = "보유 없음"
else:
gross = qty * price
record["amount_krw"] = round(gross, 0)
ok = self.sellCoinMarket(SYMBOL, int(price), qty)
record["ok"] = bool(ok)
record["message"] = f"sell qty={qty}" if ok else "sell failed"
if record["ok"] and live_sizing_enabled():
fee = gross * TRADING_FEE_RATE
self._position_state.record_sell(
gross, fee, full_close=True
sell_qty = min(float(plan.sell_qty), held)
if sell_qty <= 0:
record["message"] = "매도 수량 0"
else:
gross = sell_qty * price
record["amount_krw"] = round(gross, 0)
ok = self.sellCoinMarket(SYMBOL, int(price), sell_qty)
record["ok"] = bool(ok)
record["sell_qty"] = sell_qty
record["message"] = (
f"sell qty={sell_qty:.4f}" if ok else "sell failed"
)
self._position_state.save()
if record["ok"] and live_sizing_enabled():
fee = gross * TRADING_FEE_RATE
self._position_state.record_sell(
gross, fee, full_close=(sell_qty >= held * 0.999)
)
self._position_state.save()
else:
record["message"] = f"unknown side {side}"
except Exception as exc:
record["message"] = str(exc)
if record["ok"]:
spent = float(record.get("amount_krw") or amount_krw)
spent = float(record.get("amount_krw") or plan.amount_krw)
self._day_spent_krw += spent
self._day_trades += 1
self._rule_last_unix[hit["rule_id"]] = time.time()
@@ -282,74 +306,158 @@ class LiveTrader(Monitor):
fee = spent * TRADING_FEE_RATE
self._position_state.record_buy(hit["dt"], price, spent, fee)
self._position_state.save()
self._append_live_signal(hit)
self._save_live_signal_history()
return record
def _process_paper_batch(self, new_hits: list[dict[str, Any]]) -> None:
"""
dry-run: 신규 발화를 이력에 넣고 시뮬 전체 재생 후 알림.
"""
if not new_hits:
return
if self._ohlc_df is None:
self._load_ohlc_df()
for hit in new_hits:
self._paper.append_signal(hit)
replayed, results = replay_paper_portfolio(
self._paper.signal_history,
self._ohlc_df,
approved_buy_rules=self._approved_rules,
)
self._paper.cash_krw = replayed.cash_krw
self._paper.qty = replayed.qty
self._paper.qty_by_leg = dict(replayed.qty_by_leg)
self._paper.current_leg_id = replayed.current_leg_id
for hit in new_hits:
key = hit_key(hit)
res = results.get(key)
if res is None:
self._paper.mark_processed(hit["rule_id"], hit["dt"])
continue
log = {
"ok": res.ok,
"message": res.message,
"amount_krw": res.amount_krw,
"sell_qty": res.sell_qty,
}
self._append_paper_fire(
hit, res.amount_krw, res.ok, "" if res.ok else res.message, log
)
self._paper.mark_processed(hit["rule_id"], hit["dt"])
print(f" [{hit['side']}] {hit['rule_id']} @ {hit['dt']}")
print(f" order: {res.message} ok={res.ok}")
if not res.ok:
continue
self._rule_last_unix[hit["rule_id"]] = time.time()
post_balances = self._paper.balances_dict()
msg = build_rule_alert_message(
hit,
post_balances,
trade_krw=res.amount_krw,
trade_qty=res.sell_qty if hit["side"] == "sell" else None,
)
sym = post_balances.get(SYMBOL, {})
msg += (
f"\n[모의잔고·체결후] 현금 {_fmt_paper_krw(sym.get('krw', 0))} · "
f"보유 {float(sym.get('balance', 0)):.4f} {SYMBOL}"
)
msg += f"\n[체결] {res.message}"
self._send_coin_msg(msg)
self._paper.save()
def run_once(self) -> None:
"""1회: 규칙 평가 → (허용 시) 주문 → 텔레그램."""
"""1회: 규칙 평가 → 시뮬 hybrid 체결 → 텔레그램."""
rules = load_monitor_rules()
print(
f"[06] {datetime.now():%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S} "
f"{COIN_NAME} live={'ON' if LIVE_TRADING_ENABLED else 'OFF'} "
f"rules={len(rules)}"
f"rules={len(rules)} · sim=hybrid · bar={MATCH_PRIMARY_INTERVAL}m"
)
if not rules:
print(" monitor_rules 없음")
return
fired = evaluate_live_rules(rules)
balances = None
try:
balances = self.load_balances_dict()
except Exception:
pass
fired = evaluate_live_rules(rules, force_refresh=True)
if not fired:
print(" 발화 없음")
return
for hit in fired:
if self._paper_mode:
print(
f" [paper] 현금 ₩{self._paper.cash_krw:,.0f} · "
f"보유 {self._paper.qty:.4f} {SYMBOL} "
f"(초기 ₩{GT_INITIAL_CASH_KRW:,.0f})"
)
new_paper_hits: list[dict[str, Any]] = []
for hit in sort_hits_sim_order(fired):
rid = hit["rule_id"]
if hit["side"] == "buy" and hit["rule_id"] not in self._approved_rules:
if self._paper_mode and self._paper.already_processed(rid, hit["dt"]):
print(f" [{hit['side']}] {rid} @ {hit['dt']} (이미 처리)")
continue
if LIVE_TRADING_ENABLED and self._live_signal_seen(hit):
continue
if hit["side"] == "buy" and rid not in self._approved_rules:
print(f" [{hit['side']}] {rid} @ {hit['dt']}")
print(" skip: EV/WF 미통과 규칙")
self._append_paper_fire(
hit, 0.0, False, "EV/WF 미통과 규칙"
)
if self._paper_mode:
self._append_paper_fire(hit, 0.0, False, "EV/WF 미통과 규칙")
self._paper.mark_processed(rid, hit["dt"])
continue
planned = (
self._resolve_buy_amount_krw(hit)
if hit["side"] == "buy"
else float(LIVE_ORDER_KRW)
)
ok, reason = self._can_trade(rid, planned)
print(f" [{hit['side']}] {rid} @ {hit['dt']}")
plan_preview = self._sim_plan(hit)
ok, reason = self._can_trade(rid, plan_preview.amount_krw)
if not ok:
print(f" [{hit['side']}] {rid} @ {hit['dt']}")
print(f" skip: {reason}")
self._append_paper_fire(hit, planned, False, reason)
if self._paper_mode:
self._append_paper_fire(
hit, plan_preview.amount_krw, False, reason
)
self._paper.mark_processed(rid, hit["dt"])
continue
if hit["side"] == "buy" and planned <= 0:
print(" skip: 매수금액 0")
self._append_paper_fire(hit, 0.0, False, "매수금액 0")
if self._paper_mode:
new_paper_hits.append(hit)
continue
log = self._execute_order(hit)
self._append_paper_fire(hit, planned, True, "", log)
print(f" [{hit['side']}] {rid} @ {hit['dt']}")
log = self._execute_live_order(hit, plan_preview)
self._append_log(log)
print(f" order: {log['message']} ok={log['ok']}")
msg = build_rule_alert_message(hit, balances)
if log["ok"]:
msg += f"\n[체결] {log['message']}"
else:
msg += f"\n[실패] {log['message']}"
if not log["ok"]:
continue
balances = self._balances_for_trading()
msg = build_rule_alert_message(
hit,
balances,
trade_krw=float(log.get("amount_krw") or 0),
trade_qty=float(log.get("sell_qty") or 0) or None,
)
if balances:
sym = balances.get(SYMBOL, {})
msg += (
f"\n[잔고] 현금 {_fmt_paper_krw(sym.get('krw', 0))} · "
f"보유 {float(sym.get('balance', 0)):.4f} {SYMBOL}"
)
msg += f"\n[체결] {log['message']}"
self._send_coin_msg(msg)
def run_loop(self, sleep_sec: int) -> None:
"""
상시 루프.
if self._paper_mode and new_paper_hits:
self._process_paper_batch(new_paper_hits)
Args:
sleep_sec: 대기 초.
"""
def run_loop(self, sleep_sec: int) -> None:
"""상시 루프."""
print(f"[06] 실거래 루프 시작 · sleep={sleep_sec}s")
while True:
self.run_once()
time.sleep(sleep_sec)
def _fmt_paper_krw(value: float) -> str:
"""원화 표시."""
return f"{float(value):,.0f}"

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,337 @@
"""
Phase C dry-run 모의 포트폴리오 — 시뮬 allocate_order_amounts_chronological 와 동일 현금·보유 규칙.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
from pathlib import Path
from typing import Any
from config import (
GT_INITIAL_CASH_KRW,
GT_MAX_SELLS_PER_LEG,
GT_MIN_ORDER_KRW,
SYMBOL,
TRADING_FEE_RATE,
)
from deepcoin.ground_truth.gt_allocation import resolve_sell_qty
from deepcoin.ground_truth.gt_model import leg_exit_weights
from deepcoin.paths import PAPER_FIRES_LOG, PAPER_PORTFOLIO_JSON
class PaperPortfolio:
"""
dry-run 전용 현금·코인 보유 (초기 GT_INITIAL_CASH_KRW, 실거래 API 미사용).
"""
def __init__(self) -> None:
"""빈 모의 계좌."""
self.cash_krw: float = float(GT_INITIAL_CASH_KRW)
self.qty: float = 0.0
self.qty_by_leg: dict[int, float] = {}
self.current_leg_id: int = 0
self.sell_leg: int | None = None
self.sell_base_qty: float = 0.0
self.sells_done_by_leg: dict[int, int] = {}
self.processed_signals: list[str] = []
self.signal_history: list[dict[str, Any]] = []
@classmethod
def load(cls, path: Path | None = None) -> PaperPortfolio:
"""
디스크에서 복원. 없으면 GT_INITIAL_CASH_KRW(기본 40만 원).
Args:
path: JSON 경로.
Returns:
PaperPortfolio.
"""
p = path or PAPER_PORTFOLIO_JSON
st = cls()
if not p.is_file():
return st
try:
data = json.loads(p.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
except (json.JSONDecodeError, OSError):
return st
st.cash_krw = float(data.get("cash_krw", GT_INITIAL_CASH_KRW))
st.qty = float(data.get("qty") or 0.0)
st.qty_by_leg = {int(k): float(v) for k, v in (data.get("qty_by_leg") or {}).items()}
st.current_leg_id = int(data.get("current_leg_id") or 0)
st.sell_leg = data.get("sell_leg")
if st.sell_leg is not None:
st.sell_leg = int(st.sell_leg)
st.sell_base_qty = float(data.get("sell_base_qty") or 0.0)
st.sells_done_by_leg = {
int(k): int(v) for k, v in (data.get("sells_done_by_leg") or {}).items()
}
st.processed_signals = list(data.get("processed_signals") or [])[-500:]
st.signal_history = list(data.get("signal_history") or [])[-2000:]
if not st.signal_history:
st._rebuild_signal_history_from_fires()
return st
def _rebuild_signal_history_from_fires(self) -> None:
"""
구버전 paper(이력 없음) → paper_fires.jsonl 에서 would_trade 복원.
"""
if not PAPER_FIRES_LOG.is_file():
return
seen: set[tuple[str, str, str]] = set()
rows: list[dict[str, Any]] = []
try:
for line in PAPER_FIRES_LOG.read_text(encoding="utf-8").splitlines():
line = line.strip()
if not line:
continue
row = json.loads(line)
if not row.get("would_trade"):
continue
dt = str(row.get("signal_dt") or "")
rid = str(row.get("rule_id") or "")
side = str(row.get("side") or "")
if not dt or not rid or not side:
continue
key = (dt, rid, side)
if key in seen:
continue
seen.add(key)
rows.append(
{
"dt": dt,
"rule_id": rid,
"side": side,
"close": float(row.get("close") or 0),
}
)
except (json.JSONDecodeError, OSError, TypeError, ValueError):
return
self.signal_history = rows[-2000:]
def append_signal(self, hit: dict[str, Any]) -> None:
"""
시뮬 재생용 발화 이력 추가 (dt·rule_id·side·close).
Args:
hit: evaluate_live_rules 항목.
"""
row = {
"dt": str(hit["dt"]),
"rule_id": str(hit["rule_id"]),
"side": str(hit["side"]),
"close": float(hit["close"]),
}
key = self.signal_key(row["rule_id"], row["dt"])
if key in self.processed_signals:
return
if any(
s["dt"] == row["dt"]
and s["rule_id"] == row["rule_id"]
and s["side"] == row["side"]
for s in self.signal_history
):
return
self.signal_history.append(row)
def save(self, path: Path | None = None) -> None:
"""상태 저장."""
p = path or PAPER_PORTFOLIO_JSON
p.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
payload = {
"cash_krw": round(self.cash_krw, 0),
"qty": self.qty,
"qty_by_leg": {str(k): round(v, 8) for k, v in self.qty_by_leg.items()},
"current_leg_id": self.current_leg_id,
"sell_leg": self.sell_leg,
"sell_base_qty": round(self.sell_base_qty, 8),
"sells_done_by_leg": self.sells_done_by_leg,
"processed_signals": self.processed_signals[-500:],
"signal_history": self.signal_history[-2000:],
"initial_cash_krw": GT_INITIAL_CASH_KRW,
"sizing_engine": "sim_causal_hybrid",
}
p.write_text(json.dumps(payload, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2), encoding="utf-8")
def balances_dict(self) -> dict[str, dict[str, float]]:
"""live_trader·alert용 잔고 dict."""
return {
SYMBOL: {
"balance": self.qty,
"available_krw": self.cash_krw,
"krw": self.cash_krw,
}
}
def signal_key(self, rule_id: str, signal_dt: str) -> str:
"""동일 봉 중복 발화 방지 키."""
return f"{rule_id}|{signal_dt}"
def already_processed(self, rule_id: str, signal_dt: str) -> bool:
"""이미 체결·스킵 처리한 신호인지."""
return self.signal_key(rule_id, signal_dt) in self.processed_signals
def mark_processed(self, rule_id: str, signal_dt: str) -> None:
"""신호 처리 완료 표시."""
key = self.signal_key(rule_id, signal_dt)
if key not in self.processed_signals:
self.processed_signals.append(key)
def active_leg_id(self) -> int | None:
"""보유 수량이 있는 leg_id (없으면 None)."""
for lid, q in sorted(self.qty_by_leg.items()):
if q > 1e-12:
return lid
return None
def apply_buy(self, amount_krw: float, price: float, leg_id: int) -> bool:
"""
모의 매수 체결.
Args:
amount_krw: 매수 원화.
price: 체결가.
leg_id: leg ID.
Returns:
체결 성공 여부.
"""
if amount_krw <= 0 or price <= 0:
return False
fee = amount_krw * TRADING_FEE_RATE
if self.cash_krw < amount_krw + fee:
return False
self.cash_krw -= amount_krw + fee
bought = amount_krw / price
self.qty += bought
self.qty_by_leg[leg_id] = self.qty_by_leg.get(leg_id, 0.0) + bought
self.current_leg_id = leg_id
self.sell_leg = None
self.sell_base_qty = 0.0
return True
def plan_sell(
self,
price: float,
leg_id: int | None = None,
) -> tuple[float, float, str]:
"""
분할 매도 규모 (시뮬 leg_exit_weights·GT_MAX_SELLS_PER_LEG).
Args:
price: 체결가.
leg_id: 대상 leg. None이면 active_leg_id.
Returns:
(amount_krw, sell_qty, skip_reason). skip_reason 비어 있으면 체결 가능.
"""
lid = leg_id if leg_id is not None else self.active_leg_id()
if lid is None:
return 0.0, 0.0, "모의 보유 없음"
leg_qty = self.qty_by_leg.get(lid, 0.0)
if leg_qty <= 1e-12:
return 0.0, 0.0, "모의 보유 없음"
if self.sell_leg != lid:
self.sell_leg = lid
self.sell_base_qty = leg_qty
n_sells = max(1, int(GT_MAX_SELLS_PER_LEG))
weights = leg_exit_weights(n_sells)
idx = self.sells_done_by_leg.get(lid, 0)
is_last = idx >= len(weights) - 1
if is_last:
sell_qty = leg_qty
gross = sell_qty * price
else:
weight = float(weights[idx])
trade = {"amount_krw": None, "weight": weight}
sell_qty = resolve_sell_qty(
trade, leg_qty, price, self.sell_base_qty, weight
)
gross = sell_qty * price
if gross < GT_MIN_ORDER_KRW and leg_qty * price >= GT_MIN_ORDER_KRW:
gross = GT_MIN_ORDER_KRW
sell_qty = min(leg_qty, gross / price)
if gross <= 0 or sell_qty <= 0:
return 0.0, 0.0, "모의 매도 규모 0"
return round(gross, 0), sell_qty, ""
def apply_sell(
self,
amount_krw: float,
sell_qty: float,
price: float,
leg_id: int,
) -> bool:
"""
모의 매도 체결.
Args:
amount_krw: 매도 원화(총액).
sell_qty: 매도 수량.
price: 체결가.
leg_id: leg ID.
Returns:
체결 성공 여부.
"""
if sell_qty <= 0 or amount_krw <= 0:
return False
fee = amount_krw * TRADING_FEE_RATE
self.cash_krw += amount_krw - fee
leg_qty = self.qty_by_leg.get(leg_id, 0.0) - sell_qty
self.qty_by_leg[leg_id] = max(leg_qty, 0.0)
self.qty = max(self.qty - sell_qty, 0.0)
if self.qty < 1e-12:
self.qty = 0.0
self.sells_done_by_leg[leg_id] = self.sells_done_by_leg.get(leg_id, 0) + 1
if self.qty_by_leg.get(leg_id, 0.0) <= 1e-12:
self.qty_by_leg.pop(leg_id, None)
self.sell_leg = None
self.sell_base_qty = 0.0
self.sells_done_by_leg.pop(leg_id, None)
return True
def equity_krw(self, mark_price: float) -> float:
"""
총보유금액 = 현금 + 코인 평가(시세).
Args:
mark_price: 평가 단가.
Returns:
원화 합계.
"""
return float(self.cash_krw) + float(self.qty) * float(mark_price)
def summary(self, mark_price: float) -> dict[str, Any]:
"""
dry-run 모의 계좌 스냅샷 (빗썸 잔고와 무관).
Args:
mark_price: 최신 종가 등 평가 단가.
Returns:
initial·cash·qty·equity·pnl dict.
"""
initial = float(GT_INITIAL_CASH_KRW)
equity = self.equity_krw(mark_price)
pnl = equity - initial
pnl_pct = (pnl / initial * 100.0) if initial > 0 else 0.0
coin_value = float(self.qty) * float(mark_price)
return {
"initial_cash_krw": round(initial, 0),
"cash_krw": round(self.cash_krw, 0),
"qty": round(self.qty, 8),
"mark_price": round(mark_price, 4),
"coin_value_krw": round(coin_value, 0),
"equity_krw": round(equity, 0),
"pnl_krw": round(pnl, 0),
"pnl_pct": round(pnl_pct, 4),
"source": "paper_portfolio.json (dry-run only, not Bithumb)",
}