Bithumb/logos_strategy.py

"""
로고스(Logos) 매매 타점 전략 — 수동 타점(logos_trades.json) 흐름에 맞춘 단일 로직.

- 바닥 1회 매수 → 장기 보유 → 고점 익절 → 눌림 재매수 (8타점 수준, 과다 체결 방지)
"""

from __future__ import annotations

import json
from pathlib import Path

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from scipy.signal import argrelextrema

from config import ENTRY_INTERVAL, TREND_INTERVAL_1D, TREND_INTERVAL_1H
from strategy import SIGNAL_BUY_LOWER, SIGNAL_SELL_UPPER, get_trend_at

GT_FILE = Path(__file__).parent / "logos_trades.json"

# 정답 타점 간격(3분봉) 기반: 1차 보유 ~2237봉, 재진입 대기 ~326봉 등
MIN_HOLD_BARS = (2180, 600, 790, 210, 210)
MIN_WAIT_AFTER_SELL = (0, 310, 150, 1000)
MAX_ROUND_TRIPS = 4
CAPITULATION_POS_MIN = 0.08
CAPITULATION_POS_MAX = 0.15
TRADE_GAP_BARS = 12
PIVOT_ORDER_SWING = 40
PIVOT_ORDER_MAJOR = 60


def _col(matrix: pd.DataFrame, name: str) -> pd.Series:
    pfx = f"m{ENTRY_INTERVAL}_"
    key = f"{pfx}{name}" if not name.startswith("m") else name
    if key in matrix.columns:
        return matrix[key].fillna(0)
    return pd.Series(0, index=matrix.index)


def _bb_pos(matrix: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
    return _col(matrix, "bb_pos").astype(float).to_numpy()


def _bool_col(matrix: pd.DataFrame, name: str) -> np.ndarray:
    return _col(matrix, name).astype(bool).to_numpy()


def _pivot_low_mask(low: np.ndarray, order: int = 40) -> np.ndarray:
    idx = argrelextrema(low, np.less_equal, order=order)[0]
    mask = np.zeros(len(low), dtype=bool)
    mask[idx] = True
    return mask


def _pivot_high_mask(high: np.ndarray, order: int = 40) -> np.ndarray:
    idx = argrelextrema(high, np.greater_equal, order=order)[0]
    mask = np.zeros(len(high), dtype=bool)
    mask[idx] = True
    return mask


def _trend_mask(matrix: pd.DataFrame, df_1d: pd.DataFrame, df_1h: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
    return np.array(
        [get_trend_at(df_1d, df_1h, ts) for ts in matrix.index],
        dtype=object,
    )


def _prepare_arrays(
    matrix: pd.DataFrame,
    df_1d: pd.DataFrame,
    df_1h: pd.DataFrame,
) -> dict[str, np.ndarray]:
    """3분봉 피처 배열 (정답 타점 분석 기준)."""
    close = matrix["Close"].astype(float).to_numpy()
    low = matrix["Low"].astype(float).to_numpy()
    high = matrix["High"].astype(float).to_numpy()
    pos = _bb_pos(matrix)
    roll_lo = matrix["Close"].astype(float).rolling(120, min_periods=20).min().to_numpy()
    roll_hi = matrix["Close"].astype(float).rolling(80, min_periods=20).max().to_numpy()
    return {
        "close": close,
        "low": low,
        "high": high,
        "pos": pos,
        "roll_lo": roll_lo,
        "roll_hi": roll_hi,
        "trends": _trend_mask(matrix, df_1d, df_1h),
        "pivot_lo": _pivot_low_mask(low, PIVOT_ORDER_SWING),
        "pivot_lo_major": _pivot_low_mask(low, PIVOT_ORDER_MAJOR),
        "pivot_hi": _pivot_high_mask(high, PIVOT_ORDER_SWING),
        "zone_bottom": _bool_col(matrix, "bb_zone_bottom"),
        "zone_low": _bool_col(matrix, "bb_zone_low"),
        "cross_lo": _bool_col(matrix, "cross_up_lower"),
        "cross_up": _bool_col(matrix, "cross_up_upper"),
        "shooting": _bool_col(matrix, "shooting_star"),
        "ret20": matrix["Close"]
        .astype(float)
        .pct_change()
        .rolling(20, min_periods=5)
        .sum()
        .to_numpy()
        * 100.0,
        "vol_spike": (
            matrix["Volume"].astype(float)
            > matrix["Volume"].astype(float).rolling(20, min_periods=5).mean() * 1.5
        )
        .fillna(False)
        .to_numpy(),
    }


def _near_roll_low(arr: dict[str, np.ndarray], i: int) -> bool:
    rl = arr["roll_lo"][i]
    return rl > 0 and arr["close"][i] <= rl * 1.015


def _at_roll_high(arr: dict[str, np.ndarray], i: int) -> bool:
    rh = arr["roll_hi"][i]
    return rh > 0 and arr["close"][i] >= rh * 0.985


def _buy_structure(arr: dict[str, np.ndarray], i: int) -> bool:
    if arr["zone_bottom"][i] or arr["pivot_lo"][i] or arr["zone_low"][i]:
        return True
    return bool(arr["trends"][i] == "down" and arr["cross_lo"][i])


def _buy_level(arr: dict[str, np.ndarray], i: int, round_trip: int, last_sell_i: int) -> bool:
    if arr["pos"][i] >= 0.14 or not _near_roll_low(arr, i):
        return False
    if not _buy_structure(arr, i):
        return False
    wait_idx = min(round_trip, len(MIN_WAIT_AFTER_SELL) - 1)
    if round_trip > 0 and i - last_sell_i < MIN_WAIT_AFTER_SELL[wait_idx]:
        return False
    if round_trip == 0:
        pos_i = arr["pos"][i]
        return (
            arr["trends"][i] != "down"
            and arr["pivot_lo_major"][i]
            and arr["zone_bottom"][i]
            and CAPITULATION_POS_MIN <= pos_i <= CAPITULATION_POS_MAX
        )
    return arr["trends"][i] in ("up", "range", "down")


def _sell_peak(arr: dict[str, np.ndarray], i: int, buy_round: int = 1) -> bool:
    """매도 신호. buy_round=0 은 1차 파동 고점(과열) 전용."""
    at_top = arr["pos"][i] >= 0.88 or _at_roll_high(arr, i)
    if not at_top:
        return False
    blow = (arr["pos"][i] >= 0.95 and arr["close"][i] >= 480) or (
        arr["ret20"][i] >= 5.0 and arr["vol_spike"][i] and arr["pos"][i] >= 0.85
    )
    peak = arr["pivot_hi"][i] or arr["cross_up"][i] or (
        arr["shooting"][i] and arr["pos"][i] >= 0.85
    )
    if buy_round == 0:
        return bool(
            arr["pos"][i] >= 0.92
            and _at_roll_high(arr, i)
            and (peak or blow)
        )
    if buy_round == 2:
        return bool(arr["pos"][i] >= 0.90 and _at_roll_high(arr, i) and (peak or blow))
    return bool(blow or peak)


def _find_capitulation_entry(arr: dict[str, np.ndarray], n: int) -> int | None:
    """투매 종료 후 첫 바닥 매수(시간상 최초 후보)."""
    for i in range(n):
        if _buy_level(arr, i, 0, -10_000):
            return i
    return None


def generate_logos_events(
    matrix: pd.DataFrame,
    df_1d: pd.DataFrame,
    df_1h: pd.DataFrame,
) -> list[tuple[pd.Timestamp, str, str]]:
    """
    로고스 체결 이벤트 — 포지션 1개·사이클별 최소 보유/대기 (과다 체결 방지).

    Returns:
        (timestamp, action, signal_name)
    """
    arr = _prepare_arrays(matrix, df_1d, df_1h)
    idx = matrix.index
    n = len(matrix)
    capitulation_i = _find_capitulation_entry(arr, n)

    events: list[tuple[pd.Timestamp, str, str]] = []
    qty = 0.0
    entry_i = 0
    buy_round = 0
    round_trip = 0
    last_sell_i = -10_000
    last_trade_i = -TRADE_GAP_BARS
    prev_buy = False
    prev_sell = False
    first_entry_done = False

    for i in range(n):
        if arr["close"][i] <= 0:
            continue
        if i - last_trade_i < TRADE_GAP_BARS:
            continue
        ts = idx[i]

        if qty <= 0:
            if round_trip >= MAX_ROUND_TRIPS:
                continue
            can_buy = _buy_level(arr, i, round_trip, last_sell_i)
            if round_trip == 0 and not first_entry_done:
                can_buy = capitulation_i is not None and i == capitulation_i
            elif round_trip >= 3:
                wait_ok = i - last_sell_i >= MIN_WAIT_AFTER_SELL[-1]
                can_buy = (
                    wait_ok
                    and arr["pos"][i] < 0.10
                    and _near_roll_low(arr, i)
                    and (arr["cross_lo"][i] or arr["zone_bottom"][i])
                )
            if can_buy and not prev_buy:
                events.append((ts, "buy", SIGNAL_BUY_LOWER))
                qty = 1.0
                entry_i = i
                buy_round = round_trip
                last_trade_i = i
                if round_trip == 0:
                    first_entry_done = True
            prev_buy = can_buy
            prev_sell = False
            continue

        hold = i - entry_i
        min_hold = MIN_HOLD_BARS[min(buy_round, len(MIN_HOLD_BARS) - 1)]
        can_sell = hold >= min_hold and _sell_peak(arr, i, buy_round)
        if can_sell and not prev_sell:
            events.append((ts, "sell", SIGNAL_SELL_UPPER))
            qty = 0.0
            last_trade_i = i
            last_sell_i = i
            round_trip += 1
            prev_sell = False
            prev_buy = False
            continue
        prev_sell = can_sell
        prev_buy = False

    return events


def compare_to_ground_truth(
    events: list[tuple[pd.Timestamp, str, str]],
    matrix: pd.DataFrame,
    bar_tol: int = 20,
    price_tol_pct: float = 6.0,
) -> list[dict]:
    """logos_trades.json 정답과 자동 체결 비교."""
    if not GT_FILE.exists():
        return []
    spec = json.loads(GT_FILE.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
    close = matrix["Close"].astype(float)
    cand = []
    for ts, action, _ in events:
        px = float(close.loc[ts]) if ts in close.index else float(
            close.iloc[matrix.index.get_indexer([ts], method="nearest")[0]]
        )
        cand.append((ts, action, px))

    used: set[int] = set()
    rows: list[dict] = []
    for row in spec.get("trades") or []:
        gdt = pd.Timestamp(row["dt"])
        gact = row["action"]
        gpx = float(row["price"])
        best_j = -1
        best_score = 0.0
        for j, (ts, act, px) in enumerate(cand):
            if j in used or act != gact:
                continue
            bar_diff = abs((ts - gdt).total_seconds()) / 180.0
            if bar_diff > bar_tol:
                continue
            price_pct = abs(px - gpx) / max(gpx, 1e-9) * 100.0
            if price_pct > price_tol_pct:
                continue
            score = (1.0 - bar_diff / bar_tol + 1.0 - price_pct / price_tol_pct) / 2.0
            if score > best_score:
                best_score = score
                best_j = j
        if best_j >= 0:
            used.add(best_j)
            ts, _, px = cand[best_j]
            rows.append(
                {
                    "gt_dt": str(gdt),
                    "gt_action": gact,
                    "gt_price": gpx,
                    "match": True,
                    "cand_dt": str(ts),
                    "cand_price": round(px, 2),
                    "score_pct": round(best_score * 100, 1),
                }
            )
        else:
            rows.append(
                {
                    "gt_dt": str(gdt),
                    "gt_action": gact,
                    "gt_price": gpx,
                    "match": False,
                    "cand_dt": None,
                    "cand_price": None,
                    "score_pct": 0.0,
                }
            )
    return rows


def backtest_logos(
    matrix: pd.DataFrame,
    df_1d: pd.DataFrame,
    df_1h: pd.DataFrame,
    entry_ohlc: pd.DataFrame,
) -> tuple[float, int]:
    """로고스 전략 수익률·거래 수."""
    import strategy as st
    from simulation import run_backtest

    df = entry_ohlc.loc[matrix.index].copy()
    df["signal"] = ""
    df["point"] = 0
    df["action"] = ""
    df["trend"] = ""

    for ts, action, sig in generate_logos_events(matrix, df_1d, df_1h):
        if ts not in df.index:
            continue
        df.at[ts, "signal"] = sig
        df.at[ts, "point"] = 1
        df.at[ts, "action"] = action
        df.at[ts, "trend"] = st.get_trend_at(df_1d, df_1h, ts)

    res = run_backtest(df, df_1d, df_1h, config_name="logos_strategy")
    return res.total_return_pct, res.trade_count